Like you, I spent the better part of June and July cursing Mother Nature for the incessant southerlies blowing along our shores. Not sure if it’s her, or God Almighty that I should be defaming for these unrelenting winds actually, but surely one of them is responsible!
It’s Monday morning, July 8th as I write this, on the heels of what feels like 20 consecutive days of southerly winds. After enjoying a four-day holiday weekend (punctuated by enough south wind that I thought there couldn’t possibly be a whiff of air left in Florida to blow north at this point) my buddy called to say the fluke were chewing hard. I opened up the online NOAA Marine forecast and there it was, east winds at 5 knots. Grrrr!
And of course, what follows for the rest of the work week is south winds, 10 to 15 knots or better, every day through Saturday. In other words, I should have a highly productive week here at my desk doing work instead of fishing!
There’s a scientific paper you’ll find online about the impacts of southerly winds on ocean water temps at the Jersey Shore; just search the author’s names, Merton C. Ingham and James Eberwine. That paper is titled “Evidence of Nearshore Summer Upwelling Off Atlantic City, New Jersey” and cites longtime research on coastal upwelling dynamics (Defant, 1961) explaining how the most effective wind direction for transporting surface waters offshore, thereby bringing cooler water up into the surface layer, is one which is parallel to the coastline.
“Assuming that this is applicable to the waters over the continental shelf in the Middle Atlantic Bight, upwelling should occur along the Virginia – New Jersey coastline during the summer months when winds from the southwestern quadrant are common,” the Ingham/Eberwine paper noted.
What happens is that summer upwelling brought about by prevailing southerly winds brings colder bottom water into the surf zone. One footnoted piece of research noted specifically in the paper found upwelling in July 1976 following two days of strong southerly winds brought the Jersey Shore water temperatures down from 64.94 degrees to just 48.74 degrees. “Their analysis of 1973 and 1974 data also showed large decreases of surf temperature during July, August, and September, each preceded one or two days earlier by strong winds from the south and southwest,” the paper added.
That’s just two days; imagine what can happen over the course of two weeks!
The Ingham/Eberwine study released in 1984 documented how surf fishermen at the Jersey Shore frequently observed the upwelling effects of strong south winds, but they didn’t use the term “upwelling” at the time, but instead spoke of “cold currents” and “cold waters” being brought in by southerly winds. Over the years when the nearshore fluke bite seemingly turns off for long stretches of time, I get the occasional text or email wondering where all the fish went. Invariably, about this time I’ll also hear from divers donning 6mm to 8mm wetsuits to prowl the bottom looking for a score; it’s these folks who remind me that all is not lost, often describing a bottom paved with jumbo fluke that seemingly will not eat.
Having a bad stretch? You and I both, don’t sweat it. Take comfort in knowing that at some point someone has to turn off the cursed fan, after which it should take but a short time of north/east winds to change things up dramatically, and turn those fish on the feed once again. Hopefully you’re not sitting at your desk when it happens.
As for cursing the good lord, there’s a passage in the bible that describes how the destructive force of the south wind brought about the downfall of Egypt in the form of a locust plague. In other words, it could be a lot worse.
